Yesterday, in typical Richard Branson melodramatic fashion, Virgin Galactic revealed the White Knight Two, the carrier vehicle that will play an integral role in the first commercial spaceflight. According to reports, Branson herded his pack of reporters onto, yes, a Virgin Atlantic airplane, flew them out to the Mojave desert, and got them into a hanger when suddenly a while sheet fell from behind the stage to reveal…
After a brief press conference, the press had the opportunity to meander around the aircraft and snap photos. Sounds like a pretty nicely orchestrated event.
Just to be clear, the White Knight Two isn’t actually the space ship – that would be the machine that was mysteriously covered by a tarp and placed in the hanger’s corner (and no doubt dramatically lit from below with billows of steam blowing around). Rather, the White Knight Two will carry the creatively-named Space Ship Two to 48,000 feet, at which point the ship will separate and propel upwards to 360,000 feet, the edge of space. I would convert those to metric units, but there doesn’t seem to be a need.
Anyway, Virgin Galactic seems to be plugging along, planning the first flights by the end of next year. Progress has been delayed by a little over a year because of the tragic deaths of three engineers who were working on a rocket engine. One of the arguments for/against private space enterprises is the theory that private companies will be better able to handle the enormous risks of manned spaceflight. Whereas NASA is extremely conservative and takes as little risk as possible (a good idea when your money depends on the public’s perception of your operation), it seems likely that private companies might be better positioned to push the envelope. Virgin Galactic’s tragic mishap is the first time a legitimate space tourism company has had to deal with the consequences of risk. They seem to have recovered pretty quickly, but it will be interesting to see how things progress from here.
Just how much risk is acceptable in the grand business of space exploration? If we look back at the great sea-faring expeditions of centuries past, the attrition rate was enormous compared to today’s space travelers. In the early 1400s when the Chinese were distributing treasure fleets around the world, just 10% of sailors would return home safely. Was this worth it?
I think that NASA has played things pretty safe, and I wonder if a fear of failure has trumped the bold pursuit of the unknown. Space exploration is inherently an extremely risky undertaking, and every astronaut completely understands the risks every time he/she straps in. Of course, this is all easy to say when the lives on the line don’t belong to anyone you know. Would you, for example, be willing to go to Mars if you knew it was a one-way trip?
“In the early 1400s when the Chinese were distributing treasure fleets around the world, just 10% of sailors would return home safely. Was this worth it?”
There’s a notion that life wasn’t valued as much back then.
I think what NASA has lacked in the last 20 or so years is a worthy competitor, the more competition there is, the more people are willing to push the envelop, the more governments are willing to invest in such projects.
It’s worth noting that the risk of a catastrophic failure to SpaceShipTwo is much lower than for, say, the space shuttle. Not only is it a much simpler and smaller craft, but its top speed is an order of magnitude less than the velocities needed for orbital flight.
So true about competition stimulating more risk-taking, though I’ve always found that a bit disheartening. If something is inherently worth doing, shouldn’t we be going all out anyway? Does something gain value just because others want to do it too? Politically, seems like the answer is ‘yes’.
It’s spelled “hangar”, you, professional reporter, you.
I love Richard Branson. Building space ships and mucking about in hot air balloons is just the kind of thing I would do if I was a billionaire.
But – I wonder how he can reconcile commercial space flight with his views on climate change. I was greatly impressed when he announced he would be putting all profits from his transportation companies into research on cleaner fuel and more sustainable flight. All in his long-term interests of course, but still.