This century should be called the century of paradoxes. We are faced with perplexing choices, the choice between economic growth and environmental sustainability – the choice between alleviating pollution and maintaining pollution to influence the impact of global warming are just some of the epochal choices shaping our world – pollution has created an effect called global dimming which is reducing the impact of global warming. Consequently if we reduce pollution too quickly it could have an adverse effect upon global warming and take us into a world of chaos, such are the riddles nature is throwing at us.
These challenges are further illuminated by an article in New Scientist that recalls some research conducted by analysts at MIT who were commissioned by the Club of Rome to explore growth and sustainability. The infamous report known as ‘The Limits to Growth’ devised a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interaction of 5 sub-systems: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable resources. They used a computer model called World3, the world’s first integrated global model and their findings made for uncomfortable reading. Their models predicted that demand and consumption would overwhelm the world’s resources and supply, culminating in economic collapse in the 21st century.
At the time the report was ignored but Graham Turner of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) has compared the report’s predictions with data from 1970 to 2000. His research shows that the models are comparable to real world data, and that we are on course for economic collapse as predicted in the report if we continue down this road.
A century of paradoxes – this century will need the minds of brilliant people to find epoch making solutions to epoch making challenges.
