BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
PRODID:iCalendar-Ruby
BEGIN:VEVENT
LAST-MODIFIED:20070605T120344
SEQUENCE:0
CONTACT:office@lims.ucl.ac.uk
ORGANIZER:Lighthill Institute of Mathematical Sciences
DTEND:20070627T190000
UID:2008-07-26T07:58:31-0400_334291224@socialweb1
DESCRIPTION:*_SPORT AND MODELLING_*
\n
\n5:00pm – 5:45pm: _“Forecasting
  the 2003 Rugby World Cup: a profitable application of mathematical modelli
 ng”_
\nProfessor Stephen R Clarke [Statistics\, Swinburne University of T
 echnology\, Australia]
\n
\nFor many years Swinburne Sports Statistics have
  used their mathematical expertise to provide computer generated prediction
 s for sports events to the general public and mass media. The expansion of 
 sports betting has created a market for sports prediction expertise\, and t
 here have been several profitable attempts by staff and students at demonst
 rating the inefficiency of football\, cricket and rugby betting markets. Th
 is talk describes one of these betting forays\, resulting from a graduate s
 tudent project. A simple forecasting model was built to predict the results
  of each game and the tournament in the 2003 Rugby World Cup. An exponentia
 l smoothing technique was optimized on all 566 games played between the 20 
 World Cup teams from 1996. The model predicted the winning team\, the winni
 ng margin and the probability of a win. A simulator used these predicted pr
 obabilities to calculate a team’s overall chances of winning or placing i
 n the tournament. Predictions were regularly updated on our web site and re
 ceived other mass media exposure. The model selected the correct winner in 
 46 of the 48 games\, and the predicted margins were used for profitable gam
 bling. The syndicate continues to successfully apply the methods to other c
 ompetitions.
\n
\n5:45pm – 6:15pm: _Break for Refreshments_
\n
\n6:15pm �
 �� 7:00pm: _“Competitive balance in national European soccer competitions
 ”_
\nProfessor Dr Ruud Koning [Sport Economics\, University of Groningen\
 , The Netherlands]
\n
\nAccording to popular belief\, competitive balance i
 n national soccer competitions in Europe has decreased due to the Bosman ru
 ling and the introduction of the Champions League. We test this hypothesis 
 using data from seven national competitions\, for a host of indicators. We 
 find some evidence for competitive balance having decreased in England\, an
 d weak evidence for it having decreased in Netherlands and Belgium. For Ger
 many\, France\, Italy\, and Spain\, we find no consistent change whatsoever
 . We use factor analysis to examine whether our measures of competitive bal
 ance can be condensed in a limited number of factors. Also\, we examine the
  development of competitive balance in European competitions such as the Ch
 ampions League.
\n
SUMMARY:Lighthill Institute Evening Lectures: Sport & Modelling
DTSTART:20070627T170000
CREATED:20070605T114853
DTSTAMP:20080726T075831
LOCATION:University College London UCL Union Building Harrie Massey Lecture
  Theatre
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