World oil production is likely to peak during the next decade and begin a long, inexorable decline. As oil depletion progresses, electricity may be the only fuel that could sustain acceptable levels of land transport, chiefly renewably generated electricity delivered to vehicles while in motion. Oil products will be increasingly confined to fuelling marine transport and aviation, which will also undergo radical changes. A key issue is the extent to which oil depletion will be anticipated, or forced by high prices resulting from scarcity. This talk outlines how the U.S. and Chinathe most challenging cases among richer and poorer countriescould begin redesign of their transport systems for oil depletion. The scenario-building focuses on 2025, which will be an early point in a long era of declining oil production. It is far enough ahead to allow substantial changes in transport systems, and near enough to impel early action.

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