It is always difficult to analyse the oil market, because many of our sources of information are unreliable and others lag behind the current market by months if not years. The most up-to-date information about the state of the market is given by the set of oil prices, which is not always helpful because prices are a reflection of, and have an influence on, the many factors that drive supply and demand.

The oil market these days is also heavily influenced by expectations, which play a dominant role in the futures markets. Oil traded on NYMEX every day regularly exceeds 1 billion barrels, which is around 13 times the quotidian consumption of crude oil in the world. Making sense of such a complex business is an unenviable task, but nevertheless one that needs to be done, warts and all.

Leo Drollas of the Centre for Global Energy Studies is prepared to stick his neck out and have a go.

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