Although the an increasing number of Americans (41% ) believe the threat of climate change to be exaggerated, a range of recent reports make Hollywood-style imagery such as The Day After Tomorrow_, seem like a possible future event. One such recent headline illustrates this with the title "_Wall Street set for another big dive"
Highlighted this week by a study in Nature Geoscience, researchers from Florida State University, University of Illinois and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest the effects may be more serious than predictions in 2007 by the U.N.’s climate change panel. Earlier predictions, had suggested that low-lying areas such as Florida and Western Europe would be at most risk. However, the effects of climate change on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) could result in higher sea levels and adverse weather effects across the North-East coast of the US. Using a range of climate change models, the authors predicted that weakened North Atlantic currents combined with global sea level rises could be a greater threat to cities of the North-East, including New York, Boston, Baltimore and Washington.
The study comes after release of a report by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) last month. Formed by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the panel’s aims are to identify hazards to New York and its infrastructure and prepare for these eventualities. Even over a short time period as the next decade, a potential 3 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature and 5 inch increase in sea level in the New York region are predicted. Also, these changes would include more frequent weather events such as longer and more frequent heat waves, heavy rainstorms and coastal flooding.
The panel concluded that by the end of the century New York City’s this could equate to an increase in temperature by 7.5 degree Fahrenheit, annual precipitation by 10 percent, and sea levels to rise by 23 to as much as 55 inches. If you’re interested how this increase in sea level would look like, here as an indicator.
The report is a sobering read of how over the last century the changes that have occurred in the New York area and the vast effects on the city these ongoing effects would have. The next steps with this report will be its use by the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, which is a combination of City and federal agencies, and private companies that are involved in critical infrastructure in New York.
At the report’s release, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said “Climate change is real and could have serious consequences for New York if we don’t take action”. Perhaps Mr Major, swimming lessons could be tax deductible from next year in New York?
Barry, they had a demonstration similar to costal impact study at the climate change exhibit at the AMNH, though the exhibit suggested that flooding of this nature was unlikely to happen any time soon. I wonder where the discrepancies arise?
I think the sad truth is that people will continue to ignore and discard the facts about climate change until it is too late, as they are just not convenient
@Caryn – I think the main impact of these current studies suggest an increasing incidence of extreme weather patterns causing flooding and other infrastructural problems over the coming decades. Although they do long term suggest an elevated rise in sea levels to affect NY.
@Global Change – although there are an increasing number of objectors to these noticeable effects, there is also an increase in the number of people who see this as a threat. The move by NY is at least a positive one in the right direction.
I love research… Education of the masses is the only real solution…
Nature has new articles in its March 19th edition (www.nature.com) showing how the ice caps have been very small in the past 5 million years (small in geologic time, of course).
Brief discussion on their podcast is wonderful and educational. We live on a dynamic planet, and humans can not make a dynamic planet have static temperatures (however well-intentioned we may be).
It isn’t a questions of IF the water will rise. The real question is “How high will it rise?” Models predict everything from 5 feet to 300 feet.
If you think the economic crisis is bad now, wait for the governments of the world to not plan for the “Great Migration.” Yes, I’ll name it now. :)
There’s an interesting Google maps mashup called Flood Maps that allows you to see how a given area would look with sea level rises of 0-14 m. Sobering stuff. My house at almost the highest point in Vancouver would be OK (makes me feel slightly better as I struggle up the hill on my bike every evening) and my office would end up on the beach… but I don’t imagine I’ll be celebrating too much if that happens.