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Google flu trends: coming to Nature
Maxine Clarke
Wednesday, 12 November 2008 11:52 UTC
Google has found that certain search terms are good indicators of flu activity, as demonstrated on this graph. From the website: ‘Each week, millions of users around the world search for online health information. As you might expect, there are more flu-related searches during flu season, more allergy-related searches during allergy season, and more sunburn-related searches during the summer. You can explore all of these phenomena using Google Trends. But can search query trends provide an accurate, reliable model of real-world phenomena?’ According to Google, the answer is yes. They go on:
‘If a new strain of influenza virus emerges under certain conditions, a pandemic could emerge and cause millions of deaths (as happened, for example, in 1918). Our up-to-date influenza estimates may enable public health officials and health professionals to better respond to seasonal epidemics and — though we hope never to find out — pandemics.
Additional details about this research can be found in an early version of our manuscript. A later version has been accepted in principle for publication in Nature.’
Find more details, and download data, at the Google website.
Updated 12 November 2008 11:53 UTC
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Replies
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I published the exact same finding already a few years ago:
G. Eysenbach. Infodemiology: Tracking Flu-Related Searches on the Web for Syndromic Surveillance. AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2006; 2006: 244–248 : http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1839505
Ironically, in October 2005, I sent a prepublication inquiry to Nature Medicine if they would be interested in a full paper about this (predicting flu epidemics from Google searches) – it was declined without peer-review. The full reply is posted at http://gunther-eysenbach.blogspot.com/2008/11/google-uses-searches-to-track-flus.html . I wonder what has changed between then and now? Or is it just the fact that these authors are affiliated with Google and CDC, while I am not?
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Irrespective of anything else in your comment, you say you sent a presubmission enquiry to Nature Medicine, but the paper described here is published in Nature, an editorially independent journal (though both are published by the same company).
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SIR-Your News Feature “Web data predict flu” (Nature 456, 287-288; 2008) suggests that the onset of influenza epidemics can be detected using search engine query data. Factually, influenza like illnesses (ILI) can be triggered by many respiratory viruses other than influenza, including: respiratory syncytial virus, coronaviruses, parainfluenza, rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, metapneumovirus, bocavirus and enteroviruses. Respiratory tract infections caused by some of these viruses are a major cause of infant mortality. Altogether, approximately 200 distinct respiratory viruses have been identified (Nolte, F. S. et al. MultiCode-PLx system for multiplexed detection of seventeen respiratory viruses. J. Clin. Microbiol. 45, 2779-2786; 2007). There is a partially overlapping seasonality of infections caused by influenza viruses and other respiratory pathogens (de Jong, J. C. & Lim, W. L. The seasonality of respiratory virus diseases: Implication for SARS?, in Peiris M. et al. [eds] Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Blackwell Publishing Ltd., pp. 131-138; 2005) implying concurrent online searches motivated by either influenza or other respiratory infections. The severity of and mortality due to influenza virus infections can be attributed to virus and secondary respiratory bacteria co-pathogenesis (Brundage J. F. Interactions between influenza and bacterial respiratory pathogens: implications for pandemic preparedness.
Lancet Infect. Dis. 6, 303-312; 2006; Morens, D. M., Taubenberger, J. K. & Fauci, A. S.
Predominant role of bacterial pneumonia as a cause of death in pandemic influenza:
implications for pandemic influenza preparedness. J. Infect. Dis. 198, 945-947; 2008).
Thus, attention should be given to non-viral pathogens contributing to ILI.
These clarifications should not detract from the ingenious novel method for early tracking of influenza epidemics using search engine query data. The reliability and precision of this approach will require integration with a laboratory infrastructure network providing molecular diagnostic platforms for simultaneous rapid detection of respiratory pathogens (Nolte et al., 2007; Mahony, J. et al. Development of a respiratory virus panel test for detection of twenty human respiratory viruses by use of multiplex PCR and a fluid microbead-based assay. J. Clin. Microbiol. 45, 2965-2970; 2007).
A. Robert Neurath Virotech
1496 Hemlock Farms
Hawley, PA 18428, USA
e-mail: arneurath@att.netSIR-Your News Feature “Web data predict flu” (Nature 456, 287-288; 2008) suggests that the onset of influenza epidemics can be detected using search engine query data.
Factually, influenza like illnesses (ILI) can be triggered by many respiratory viruses other than influenza, including: respiratory syncytial virus, coronaviruses, parainfluenza, rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, metapneumovirus, bocavirus and enteroviruses. Respiratory tract infections caused by some of these viruses are a major cause of infant mortality. Altogether, approximately 200 distinct respiratory viruses have been identified (Nolte, F. S. et al. MultiCode-PLx system for multiplexed detection of seventeen respiratory viruses. J. Clin. Microbiol. 45, 2779-2786; 2007). There is a partially overlapping seasonality of infections caused by influenza viruses and other respiratory pathogens (de Jong, J. C. & Lim, W. L. The seasonality of respiratory virus diseases: Implication for SARS?, in Peiris M. et al. [eds] Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Blackwell Publishing Ltd., pp. 131-138; 2005) implying concurrent online searches motivated by either influenza or other respiratory infections.
The severity of and mortality due to influenza virus infections can be attributed to virus and secondary respiratory bacteria co-pathogenesis (Brundage J. F. Interactions between influenza and bacterial respiratory pathogens: implications for pandemic preparedness.
Lancet Infect. Dis. 6, 303-312; 2006; Morens, D. M., Taubenberger, J. K. & Fauci, A. S.
Predominant role of bacterial pneumonia as a cause of death in pandemic influenza:
implications for pandemic influenza preparedness. J. Infect. Dis. 198, 945-947; 2008).
Thus, attention should be given to non-viral pathogens contributing to ILI.
These clarifications should not detract from the ingenious novel method for early tracking of influenza epidemics using search engine query data. The reliability and precision of this approach will require integration with a laboratory infrastructure network providing molecular diagnostic platforms for simultaneous rapid detection of respiratory pathogens (Nolte et al., 2007; Mahony, J. et al. Development of a respiratory virus panel test for detection of twenty human respiratory viruses by use of multiplex PCR and a fluid microbead-based assay. J. Clin. Microbiol. 45, 2965-2970; 2007).
A. Robert Neurath Virotech
1496 Hemlock Farms
Hawley, PA 18428, USA
e-mail: arneurath@att.net
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